Read To Learn How To Do Baseball Betting In Right Way

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Baseball betting has been popular in the USA and Canada for a long time. Along with football and cricket, baseball is also one popular sport that experiences betting activity from players worldwide. Baseball betting offers the highest betting opportunity than any other sport because many games are played throughout the year. It has the longest leagues than any other team sport. Baseball's popularity is not limited to America but is also prevalent in countries like Cuba, Japan, and China.

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Baseball is played between two teams. One team does defense and the other offense. The offense includes hitting the ball and running from one fence to another. Defense includes pitching. Some of the most well-known baseball leagues are – Major League Baseball (MLB), Divisional Championships, Pennant Winners, World Series, and Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB).

How to bet on baseball?

There are three ways to make a baseball bet. They are – Money line, run line, parlays, over/under, and prop bets.

1. Money Line

The most popular betting method in baseball is the money line. Under this bet, you pick the team that you think will win. The baseball bet is shown as American odds. A negative sign is displayed for the team with the highest number of bets (favorite), and a plus sign is placed in front of the team, which is expected to lose by most players. The amount you earn depends on the risk you take since betting on some teams might be riskier than others based on their past performance and abilities.

Let us look at an example of money line betting. There is a match between the Detroit Tigers and the New York Yankees. The Tigers have a money line of +130 and the Yankees have a money line of -150. This signifies that you will have to bet $1.50 to win one dollar since the risk involved in betting for the Tigers is lower since it has a higher chance of winning the game. For the underdog, you can win $1.30 for every $1 you wager since the risk associated is higher as it is highly likely that the Yankees will lose.

2. Run lines

These kinds of bets are similar to spread bets in basketball and football. However, in baseball, the team must make at least 2 or 3 additional runs to win if we continue with the above example to understand the run line and assume that the runline for tigers is +1.5 with $110 baseball odds and that for the Yankees is -1.5 with $100 baseball odds. If you predict that the Tigers have a good chance of winning the match by at least two runs, then the runline provides you with a better opportunity than the Money line which has worse odds.

3. Over/Under bets

This baseball betting category is popular among odd makers. The bet is based on the projected total score of the teams and the probability attached to the event that the score will go higher or lower than that combined total. For example, if the combined total score of 2 teams is projected as ten runs and there is a higher chance that the final score will come to a number greater than 10, then odds would be -$130. Since the probability of the score going below 10 is less, the odds would be +$110.

Baseball betting tips

Baseball betting is usually done based on the money line, which means that the players try to predict the winners or losers of a match. The players either bet on the favorite, expected to win by the majority of the underdog, expected to lose. Following are the tips that players can use while engaging in baseball betting

1. Do not always bet on Big favorites

Oddsmakers are aware that a substantial number of players usually bet on the popular teams that have had a good performance and are known for their skills in the game. Thus they try to capitalize on this kind of public bias.

You will often find popular teams like the Yankees and Dodgers to have -120, -150, or -180 odds attached to them, making them highly overvalued since average players tend to bet on them despite the high price believed to be associated with less risk. However, since you bet more than you earn, you may end up in losses in the end. In addition, if these favorites end up losing a game you will stand to lose a huge amount.

2. Do not hesitate with Plus-money underdogs

Instead of always picking the big favorites you can bet on the plus money underdogs. If these teams lose, you only lose the money you wagered, but you get high payouts if they win. For instance, If you bet on a team that has odds of +120, it implies that for every $1 that you bet you will stand to get a payout of $1.2.

3. Try being contrarian

Bet against the public favorites. The average joes of the baseball betting market tend to opt for popular teams and big favorites. They are victims of many biases and often make decisions purely based on gut instinct. It has been observed that the public loses more often than it wins. Thus it could pay to be a contrarian bettor as you can capitalize on the public bias and overly-inflated numbers.

4. Lookout for Reverse Line Movement

Blindly going contrarian or baseball betting on plus-money underdogs will not get you far. You need to be on a level with the sharp side of the game. One way to do that is to follow the reverse line movement. Let us say that the Yankees and the Tigers opened with -130 and +100 odds respectively. After some time, the odds of Yankees shift from -130 to -110, and that of Tigers shift from +100 to +90. It signifies that the odds have turned in favor of the Tigers.

5. Go for Divisional Dogs

Two teams which belong to the same division are more familiar with each other's playing style and tactics. Hence,  the underdogs playing with a team that belongs to their division stand a chance of losing fewer times than when they play with a team outside their division.

6. Be aware of the weather

Knowing the speed and direction of wind helps to makeover and under bets. If the wind blows out, then there is a high possibility that the total combined score will be over the predicted total. When the wind blows in, then it is more likely to be under the predicted score—a greater speed of wind benefits overs and a lower speed benefits under.

7. Open several accounts

A common mistake that new bettors make is operating bets only from one website. Doing so is not beneficial since you will be stuck with lesser baseball betting options. Different options can offer different odds to compare and choose the best one.

8. Go for Volume Betting

Although it is said that a bettor should limit his plays only to the most valuable games, baseball is a sport where it is profitable to increase the volume of betting.

9. Money Management

It is best to use around 1% to 5% of your funds to bet for every play. If you are conservative, baseball betting 1% to 2% would be appropriate. If you want to be a little aggressive you can bet around 4% to 5%. In addition, avoid parlays and teasers as bookmakers tend to take advantage of such bets by providing unfair odds since big payouts lure the players. You should follow flat baseball betting which means baseball betting the same amount for every game.

10. Know the Umpires

Since umpires are human they have pronounced tendencies. Thus, being aware of these tendencies can help the players anticipate outcomes.

Metrics to know for betting on baseball

The stable metrics that one should be aware of are-

  • Walk and strikeout percentage- These are the metrics that the teams have the most control over and are also the key metric used to predict the performance of a baseball game.
  • Slugging percentage and home run rate- These two metrics tell us a hitter’s ability to hit a home run. Even though it is influenced by factors such as the size of the stadium and the weather, it is a better predictive metric for performance than other metrics used in baseball betting
  • Ground balls and fly balls- Batted balls are divided into three categories namely ground balls, line drives, and fly balls. Ground balls and fly balls are more clearly distinguished; thus they are more predictive than line drivers.

The noisy metrics which are not under the direct control of the team players consist of the following-

  1. Earned Run average- This metric tells us the number of runs that the pitcher allows for every nine innings.
  2. Batting Average- This variable is the opposite of strikeout and walks percentage since it depends on external variables like lucky bounces and defense.
  3. The home run rate for pitchers is more unstable than the hitters' run rate, mostly since it is more dependent on the hitter's skill.

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